My Joseph Addai Blog

Fantasy Football Leagues require that you start 2 RBs, and in those leagues with a flex position, you may even find yourself needing a third RB starter. Since we are usually talking 12 man leagues, that means 24 to 36 RBs will be starting every week, and you will need backups, since the injury bug and underperformers always bite you. How do you avoid the pain of over-spending on RBs, and where are those el-cheapo value picks? We are off and running with RB sleepers for 2009.

There are basically 3 levels of RB Fantasy production for you to consider. The top tier is 250 to 300 Fantasy points in a standard scoring format, with about 4 or 5 RB candidates. The second tier is 200 to 250 points, with around 10 or 11 RBs. Then you have maybe 15 guys who will give you 150 to 200 points. This only accounts for 29 or 30 really productive runners. You can see how important it is to get a couple of sleepers, and get them at a discount.

Sleeper #1

Derrick Ward has so many things going right for him in Tampa Bay it is almost silly. Earnest Graham will be sharing carries with him, but after an ankle sprain for Graham last year, and a huge contract signed by Ward in the off-season, it is obvious where TB will be handing the ball most of the time. Ward averaged 5.3 yards a carry at New York the last two years, and is a threat to catch the ball as well. Look for 48 catches, 1500 total yards from scrimmage and 8 TDs. These kinds of numbers will put him at the bottom of the second tier of backs, and you can expect to pick him up in the 6th or 7th round, not bad for 3rd or 4th round numbers.

Sleeper #2

Donald Brown is a speedy UConn Rookie tailback that impressed Indy bigwigs with his hands as much as his feet. If you recall how Joseph Addai did three seasons ago in a running back by committee effort, and factor in Addai's less than impressive 2008, I think you can look for 150 fantasy points from Brown. Addai has not played a full season for 2 years now, and Brown will probably go around round 12 - 14. Getting 6th round production in round 12 is what the draft is all about, and I do not think you can go wrong here.

Anyone can pick Matt Forte with the 5th overall pick, but knowing who to pick in the mid to late rounds, without paying too much, is where Fantasy Titles are won. Look for things like backups, people splitting carries with injury-plagued guys, and team-jumpers going into favorable situations. If you keep these things in mind, you will be sure to get good value from the RB position, and nab a sleeper or two.

Patrick O'Neill is an 18 year Fantasy Football Veteran who has won countless local and internet Fantasy Football Championships.
"If you are serious about winning, instead of competing, I recommend the same software I use, catered to your League's rules and scoring system. Win In 2009. Get it now, and win in 2009."
Patrick ONeill

I always find it helpful to break down specific positions into tiers. As always, the RB pool has some pretty distinct tiers. If you get any of these guys in the Top Tier, you've got a solid anchor to your squad.

Top Tier:
Chris Johnson $$72

Adrian Peterson $69

Maurice Jones-Drew $68

Ray Rice $66

Michael Turner $58

Frank Gore $55

Of course for every tier you can argue if certain players should be included or not and there is a pretty big swing in auction value from CJ to Gore ($17), but I believe these are all top tier talent.

Breakout candidate: Ray Rice

He had a great year last year, is very young and looks to be getting even better. Baltimore loves to run and Rice is a great receiving back as well. I don't think he's come anyway near his ceiling yet.

Safest Play: Maurice Jones-Drew

CJ and AP are also very safe, but you're going to have to pay for them. It feels like last year could be CJ's ceiling, well, you would think. AP looks steady to, but the fumbles are somewhat concerning if he keeps slipping up. Jones-Drew is the every down back who gets goal line work and 3rd down receptions. The Jags aren't a great team, but he is their best asset and they have to feed him.

Bust Potential: Chris Johnson*

It's tough to pinpoint a bust in the top tier this year. I love Chris Johnson, but so many things went right last year, it's just difficult to imagine he pulls it off again. Let me be clear, I don't think Chris Johnson is necessarily a bust (hence the asterisk), he's an awesome player and will have a great year. I just think that you might not get as much value out of him given his price tag this year, which could make him a bust relative to the % of your auction dollars you need to allocate to him to retain his services.

Best Value: Michael Turner

Last year he was a #2 overall guy going for the mid $60 range. He was having a very solid year and then got hurt. He came back very late a couple times but was never really ready nor was he effective. He's had time to heal now and get into better shape. Remember last year he had put on "muscle" coming into a camp. That is a code word for someone who got fat in the off-season. I can't ever think of a time when someone in a skill position puts on a bunch of weight, or "bulked up" as they sell it and it end up being a good thing. Turner will be back, slimmer and ready to return to form from his breakout campaign. His value has been knocked way down because of last year and I'm buying him if his price stays reasonable, like it looks on the board.

2nd Tier:

Steven Jackson $44

DeAngelo Williams $42

Rashard Mendenhall $41

Cedric Benson $40

Ryan Grant $35

Jamaal Charles $35

Ryan Matthews $35

Pierre Thomas $34

Shonn Greene $33

Beanie Wells $32

I almost cut off the tier after Grant, but opted to include the next 5 RB's after that as well. There is definitely a difference; I just don't think it's that huge.

Breakout Candidate: Shonn Greene

I think we were more timid about anointing this guy as the next RB god originally. Sure it was tough not to be high on him after his playoff performance, but once the Jets brought in LT, (even if you think he is done) it was a little worrisome. Given all that I am starting to think this guy could be a monster despite any value LT might shift away from him. The Jets run the ball so much and this guy looks like he can handle the load. It's tough to imagine LT getting any better than he was last year and if Greene is dominating, it's not going to take the Jets long to figure out that superior talent wins out and will get the bulk of the carries and goalline work. Look for Greene to move up our board on the next update.

Safest Play: Ryan Grant

He is the ultimate not-sexy running back. That's good though, because the tempting RB's are usually the ones that burn you. His offense is loaded, moves the ball and scores points. Nobody cuts into Grants workload and he's been producing at a solid level for a good stretch now.

Bust Potential: Rashard Mendenhall

I don't know if it's just me, but whenever I watched this guy play last year I was never overly impressed. I just think he's going way to high right now in drafts and auctions. The Steelers offense is in complete disarray with Big Ben out 6 weeks (maybe 4), Holmes gone and Hines Ward is supposed to be getting old for the tenth consecutive year.

Best Value: Ryan Matthews

I know, I know, how can a rookie have the best value when he's completely unproven. Based on Norv's statement of how much he wants to use this guy, I'm slightly bullish on him. Vincent Jackson might be holding out for a while after his suspension, which hurts the passing attack slightly. LT was such a disaster last year they had to get away from running it. I look for them to bring a more balanced attack again and Matthews will be the top dog in an offense that produces year in year out.

3rd Tier:

Moreno $26

Addai $24

Brown $23

McCoy $17

Stewart $17

Forte $14

Best $14

Tate $13

Jacobs $12

The third tier is the place where a person who did the opposite and went after WR's and QB's first lives. Sure you might get lucky on a couple of these guys if you get a few, but if one, or God forbid, two of them are your starters, I hope you got a really stacked WR corp and/or a premium QB.

Breakout Candidate: Everyone not named Joseph Addai

Seriously, you could make an argument for everyone on the list other than Addai that says each guy could have a breakout first season or rebound season. I just don't see a lot of upside with Addai.

Safest play: Joseph Addai

Huh? No, I'm not really a big fan of Addai, but the guy has produced at a moderate level the past few seasons, including 13 TD's last year. The Colts offense is always steady. The only concern is Donald Brown taking the job from him. Addai is not as old (27) as he feels like. When you're looking at the 3rd tier, it's tough to find safety, but Addai is the closest thing to it.

Bust Potential: Jahvid Best

How many rookie RB's from the Lions are you going to talk yourself into before you just give up and realize that anyone that is on the Lions is probably doomed for failure. Kevin Jones was the last one for me....never again. Let me summon my inner-Pitino...."Barry Sanders is not walking through that door!"

Best Value: Jonathon Stewart

Carolina is so run heavy, even the #2 guy (or depending how you view it, 1A guy) Jonathon Stewart is a beast. He posted starter-like numbers last year despite not being "the guy". He's a great value because if anything happens to DeAngelo, Stewart is probably a top 5 back, providing he doesn't get injured himself.

It's almost time for Fantasy Football season! Let the second guessing and over analysis begin!

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